Plain Reckoner
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Revenue planning lab

Test traffic loss, profit targets and ad-network fees.

Sources and limits
Transparent arithmetic and worked examples; no predicted RPM, promised earnings or account access. Read the data and method ↗ How to use the tools
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Your starting month

Use the same month for all three figures.

Other revenue, taxes and financing are excluded unless you account for them in your assumptions. Provider-reported session RPM cannot be used as page RPM.

How this works

Use matching dates, USD revenue and pageviews. Enter cash costs separately from revenue; include owner pay only if you want it treated as a cost.

Try three plans using the same starting numbers. The examples are not predictions. Change any number. Nothing is uploaded or saved between visits. Your numbers stay with you when you change language.

Decision tool 01

What if search traffic falls?

Reduce the search portion of your traffic, then apply a separate page-RPM change. Cash costs stay fixed, so you can see the impact on profit.

Remaining monthly pageviews
70,000
Scenario monthly revenue
$840.00
Scenario cash profit
$340.00
Revenue change versus baseline
-$660.00
Page RPM needed to cover cash costs
$7.14
Formula, example and limits

Remaining pageviews = baseline × (1 − search share × search loss). Revenue = baseline revenue × remaining-traffic fraction × (1 + RPM change). With 100,000 pageviews, $1,500 revenue, $500 costs, 60% search share, 50% search loss and 20% lower RPM: 70,000 pageviews, $840 revenue and $340 cash profit.

This is a stress scenario, not a probability estimate. Search and other visitors may monetize differently; a single average RPM cannot model that difference.

Decision tool 02

How much traffic funds your profit target?

Start from the page RPM implied by the baseline. Add your costs to a monthly profit target and calculate the pageviews required at that rate.

Baseline page RPM
$15.00
Required monthly revenue
$1,500.00
Required monthly pageviews
100,000
Additional monthly pageviews
0
Formula, example and limits

Page RPM = revenue ÷ pageviews × 1,000. Required revenue = costs + target profit. Required pageviews = required revenue ÷ page RPM × 1,000, rounded up. At $15 page RPM, $500 costs and a $1,000 profit target require 100,000 pageviews.

Zero observed revenue cannot establish a positive RPM. We show an unavailable result instead of substituting a benchmark. Costs and RPM may change as traffic grows; this is not a promise of profit.

Decision tool 03

Would switching ad networks actually pay?

A higher headline RPM can be offset by fees, migration costs or lost traffic. Compare the whole scenario over a chosen period.

Traffic loss you can afford over this period
15%
Candidate monthly revenue
$2,000.00
Candidate cash profit after extra fee
$1,400.00
Recurring monthly gain
$400.00
Gain over comparison period
$1,800.00
Simple payback
1.5 months
Candidate page RPM needed to break even over this period
$17.00
What if traffic changes? Same RPM, fees and time period.
Traffic lossGain versus staying (USD)
0%$1,800.00
10%$600.00
20%-$600.00
30%-$1,800.00
Formula, example and limits

Candidate revenue = remaining pageviews × candidate page RPM ÷ 1,000. Monthly gain = candidate revenue − extra fee − baseline revenue. Period gain = monthly gain × months − one-time cost. Cash costs shared by both options cancel in the gain calculation.

At the example baseline, a $20 candidate page RPM, $100 extra monthly fee and $600 migration cost produce a $400 recurring monthly gain and $1,800 gain over six months. Simple payback is 1.5 months. Use payable revenue after the network’s share in both RPMs; do not deduct that share twice. The traffic-loss limit is the largest sustained drop that still covers baseline revenue, extra fees and the switching cost over your chosen period. It assumes a constant candidate page RPM and no other changes. Variable revenue shares, seasonality, payment delays and network acceptance are not modeled.

Read the worked network-switching example →

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